Teams with Lock status have at least a 95% chance to make the tournament, according to the BPI forecast. (Yes, this means that 5% of the time, a team marked as a lock will miss the tourney. We set the threshold there as a nod to the traditional standard for significance testing.)

Bubble watch drama begins to be really good and enveloping in the middle of February, but in early March, bubble intrigue becomes all-consuming. It's that month, the biggest month of the college basketball season and an explosion of color,