India and Pakistan agreed on May 10 to end days of fighting, after the worst confrontation between the two countries in decades.

The claims have grave implications for India. It has modernised its forces in the past decade by buying 62 Rafales and is considering buying more. Pakistan, meanwhile, has added 150 JF -17 fighters, most jointly made with China, since 2007 and has bought 20 J -10 C s since 2022.

Yet, the danger of nuclear war remains "relatively small" between India and Pakistan, according to Mr Clary. "So long as there is not major ground combat along the border, the dangers of nuclear use remain relatively small and manageable," he said.