Nvidia shares' 9% recovery Tuesday was the second-best day in terms of market cap added for any company ever, trailing only a record it set in July.

It has been 26 years since Nvidia has gone public. The stock has crashed in four of these years. So it's certainly possible that Nvidia's stock price will reverse and turn south in 2025. In fact, I think 2025 is a year that is more likely than most of a drop in stock price. Here's why.

That bounce comes after stock plunged 17% on Monday and slashed more than $595 billion from the company's valuation, the biggest single-day market cap decline on record. But retail investors bought the dip at a record level, even as the sell-off gripped Wall Street, according to Vanda Research.