The crude oil market's rather sanguine reaction to the U.S. threats to India over its continued purchases of Russian oil is effectively a bet that very little will actually happen.

India signals it won’t bow to U.S. pressure, prioritizing cheap Russian crude to keep export goods competitive and avoid a potential $20B jump in oil import costs over two years.

Oil prices fall in early trade as traders await President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin's meeting in Alaska later this week. Brent crude is down 0.7% at $66.13 a barrel, while WTI is down 0.