Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to both games, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies a ke

Greif: Philadelphia will beat Washington in the NFC because the Commanders’ defense has been leaky (allowing 25.5 points per game in the postseason, 9.5 more than Philadelphia), while the Eagles have ranked among the league’s elite defenses all season; by one metric, they stand tied for the league lead in allowing the lowest success rate.

On top of that, you can spot the Philadelphia defense up in the top right corner of that graph. This is a defense that can double team Terry McLaurin without getting torched by Dyami Brown or Olamide Zaccheaus. That should be enough to result in a win by seven points or more — though I do hate betting against the Commanders Cinderella story.