Helene strengthened into a major Category 3 hurricane Thursday as it barreled across the Gulf of Mexico on a path to Florida.

Hurricane Helene is shaping up to be a historic Florida storm, with the potential to make landfall near Tallahassee as a Category 4. But for Florida’s insurance market, losses are expected to be modest — and nowhere near 2022′s Hurricane Ian or 2018′s Hurricane Michael.

Catastrophic storms have crippled the state’s home insurance market in the past, and some researchers say it is dangerously vulnerable.