Erin is expected to become a hurricane Friday, Aug. 15 and a major hurricane by Sunday morning. What Florida can expect from the storm.

Most long-term models predict Erin will curl away from Florida. Those projections often are unreliable more than a week out, and the hurricane center warned that doubt remains in the forecast. In the four- and five- day range, track forecasts have an average error of about 150 to 215 miles, forecasters said.